Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Figures

The mean number of daily murders monthly in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new official figures. However, security specialists have cautioned that murder data may not indicate improved countrywide stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November versus almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen during these past months is very significant,” the President said, noting that the previous month the least amount of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military operations to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly sharper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central components of the President's safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that relying on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for gauging the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was also problematic because it could hide days when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Employing the daily average renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

However despite these measures, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the nation to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas said.