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The Palestinian faction is likely to demand important changes to Donald Trump's Gaza ceasefire proposal but could ultimately agree to the framework in the coming days as a basis for fresh talks, according to analysts and insiders close to the group.

The US President's Time Limit and Proposal Outline

The US president imposed a deadline of “three or four days” from this week for the group to respond to his 20-point proposal, which aims to conclude the two-year war in the Gaza Strip and allow an seemingly open-ended global oversight of the devastated region, or confront serious consequences.

Political expert Mkhaimar Abusada remarked that Hamas now faces a choice between “two difficult options.” Abusada continued, “Should they refuse the proposal, as Trump has made clear, the outcome will be unfavorable and will permit Israeli forces to do whatever it takes to finish this. They will say ‘yes, but we need this and that’.”

Hamas's Key Concerns

Hugh Lovatt commented that it would be extremely challenging for Hamas to accept the conditions without reservations. “That is understandable. The text is vague. But any response short of full and unconditional approval will be exploited by the group by Israeli authorities, the US government, and perhaps the European Union,” he explained.

Israel's prime minister has accepted the Trump plan, which included several of Israel's principal demands and was formulated without consulting the Palestinian faction.

Netanyahu, who is wanted for alleged international law violations by the ICC from the military campaign in Gaza, has declared that the country would “complete its mission” if Hamas rejected the proposal or delayed its implementation. Earlier this year, Israeli forces ended a 60-day truce, refusing to move to a planned second phase that could have definitively ended hostilities.

Internal Disagreements and Outside Pressure

Hamas leaders are divided among Istanbul, Doha, and the Gaza Strip, which hinders discussions on the faction's reply. Turkish officials and Qatar are urging Hamas to make concessions.

A major sticking point is the plan's requirement that the faction disarm, a insider close to the organization revealed. The handover of all weapons would be extremely hard for Hamas to accept, particularly without any political process or substantial progress toward a Palestinian state.

“There are varying viewpoints within the movement. Those in Qatar tend to be more pragmatic, especially compared to the armed wing in the Strip. There is an obvious necessity to have the buy-in of the armed faction, and the rank and file fighters,” Lovatt explained.

War Context and Humanitarian Toll

The war were sparked by the militant attack into southern Israel that killed over a thousand individuals, mostly non-combatants. About two hundred fifty were taken hostage, of whom forty-eight remain in Gaza, though less than 50% are still alive.

Over sixty-six thousand people, mostly civilians, have been killed by the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, large parts of the area left in rubble, and the majority of the 2.3 million population displaced many times.

Trump's Plan Specifics

The US plan will require the militants to release the remaining captives within 72 hours of a truce coming into effect, the phased pullback of IDF troops to a security perimeter along the border, and a increase of relief supplies. It also stipulates Israel to release more than 1,000 detainees, a number imprisoned for life, which Hamas could portray as a major achievement.

Another concern for Hamas is the vague assurance of Israeli withdrawals, though the clear statement that there will be no annexation or occupation of the territory by Israel was viewed positively by one source familiar with Hamas.

The Group's Present Condition and Capabilities

Some analysts say that internal disagreements within the organization are often overstated.

“I don't think there is a real split among the Gaza leadership, the West Bank, and the external officials. They all agree on opposing the disarmament because the military resistance is a core tenet in their nature and ethos,” said Michael Milshtein.

The group has suffered very significant losses in the conflict. Many of militants have been killed, along with almost all senior military leaders. Research by ACLED found that at least forty leaders and key operatives in the armed faction had been targeted by Israeli airstrikes since March. Their deaths have resulted in only one top leader from Hamas's pre-7 October command structure still in command, the group reported.

However Hamas continues insurgent activities and maintains elements of governance in the lack of any alternative. Aid workers in Gaza reported that the faction still had a significant influence in the urban center, the “central camps” farther south, and the beach area of al-Mawasi.

Hamas, which was established in the late 1980s, has enlisted many of fresh recruits who, though inexperienced and poorly equipped, can inflict casualties on Israeli forces.

The expert said that, according to defense officials, 90% of Hamas commanders had been killed, ninety-seven percent of its rockets used or neutralized, but only 40% of the faction's vast underground system had been eliminated. “Hamas have adjusted to the new conditions. They remain operational in zones where the IDF has stated the group is eliminated, but you can’t completely destroy them. They have metamorphosed and they persist,” Milshtein said.

Within Hamas Resistance to the Proposal

Certain within the group are committed to rejecting the US proposal outright.

“There exists a trend from the armed branch, particularly the younger fighters, which wants to continue the struggle,” Lovatt explained. “They believe is that Israel is facing challenges: the call-up of reservists is a significant strain, elections are scheduled within a year, there is growing global and local criticism … So, for them, it’s just a question of who will endure longer.”