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The most severe potential impacts of the climate emergency for the UK have been mapped by researchers, ranging from a scorching 4C jump in temperatures to a 6.5-foot surge in sea level. A separate possibility envisions a decline of 6C in temperatures following the failure of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt farming and energy demand.

Plausible Events, Not Guarantees

These consequences, a number of which are associated with climate tipping points, are seen as improbable but plausible. The team explained that these projections filled a gap in risk assessment that had left the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The worst-case scenarios we have detailed aren’t predictions, but they are possible," commented the professor who led the research. "The nation has been formulating policy lacking the frameworks to test against worst-case scenarios. We've now given decision-makers what they need to get ready for future conditions they hope never happen, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Harsh Climate Projections

A second set of dire projections details the possible scale of harsh climate between now and the year 2100. These suggest that temperatures could skyrocket in certain periods by up to 6C higher than the norm, while rainfall could be 300% of typical amounts.

The chance of the worst-case outcomes coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to unknown factors about what steps will be implemented to tackle global warming and how the planet's climate will behave. This approach was compared to national security risk assessments or stress tests for economic stability.

Key Scenario Highlights

• Four-Degree Warming: Global temperatures exceeding 4C by 2100 could happen if international cooperation collapses or if powerful amplifying effects such as the Amazon basin perishing emit its enormous store of carbon. This would lead to severe and lengthy heat domes and water shortages hitting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A major ocean current, the North Atlantic current, is slowing down and losing stability due to ocean warming. A complete failure commencing by 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be completely altered," said the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic disintegrate quickly, flooding coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this risk is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is drastically reduced. This counterintuitive effect occurs because tiny specks from fossil fuel combustion scatter solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Worst

The severe models could be utilized in planning the development of critical national infrastructure, for example housing developments, energy plants and flood defences. Awareness of these future hazards could also hasten the drive to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

The analysis developed the extreme models using a mix of real-world events, climate models and established principles. The scenarios omit international cascading effects including the agricultural collapse and increased conflict.

This work was requested as part of a national climate resilience programme. Independent analyses have stated that insufficient focus was being given to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

An independent advisory body has said that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and examine the risks for 4C. Previous adaptation plans have been criticised as being "very weak" by environmental groups.

An official statement noted: "The climate emergency is at the center of the country's focus, both building resilience and transitioning to a low-carbon economy. It is vital that the UK is resilient for the consequences."